History The market value of cars of our hobby and the future going forward?

You mean...this car didn't come this way from the factory!? Well it damn well should have. Best looking Vette I've ever seen.

 

They're cars, just like any other car you've bought, new or old. I bought my duramax thirteen years ago, made me cry, but I got er. Its worth half what I paid, I built my 36 twenty years ago, appraised then at 40,000, now I'd be lucky to get half that, kinda the same thing. Difference is....my 36 is fun to drive, there is literally not another one like it on the road, i got the only one that looks like mine. Walk through the parking lot, car show, and you can pick out LeRoy's truck, its the only one there, BUT, that doesn't make it super valuable, only unique, just like all our cars, I suspect thats why we own them. They are not an investment, some guys make them investments, the majority of us love our hot rods and love to be seen in them.
If you buy a ferrari, you'll take a beating the minute it leaves the showroom, it does not increase in value just cause you now own it, same for my duramax, my woman's jeep, and my old cars.

 

I THINK THE DEALS WILL COME SHORTLY . TOO MANY POOR PEOPLE OUT OF WORK
FAMILY FIRST THEN HOT RODS AND TOYS

 

I haul building supplies for a living, mostly roofing shingles. Every time a hurricane or a tornado comes through an area, my rates go up, as does the number of loads. Same for the guys who haul lumber or other building materials. We don’t set the prices or the rates, the market does, if an item is in demand, it costs more to get, the law of supply and demand. Am I wrong to make a profit because somebody else has their roof damaged? I said profit, not a gouging. I can agree where gouging is concerned, but making a profit off of others misfortune is just a part of doing business. And it’s not just in hauling, it’s in lots of industries . It goes on every day, you just may not realize it.

Question is, would you not take advantage of a deal on a car you want if it was offered? Or would you insist on paying more because you know it’s worth more than the asking price? I think most people would take the deal, then come on here and brag about what a good deal they got. By the way, I never tell what I give when I buy a car, I might want to sell it one day and it’s nobodies business if I make a profit or not......

 

My dad taught me to never ask someone what they paid for something and never tell someone what you paid for something. It was nobody's business either way.

 

I paid to much for my car when I bought it 33 years ago. It doesn't really matter now does it. Just because a car is cheap doesn't mean you should buy it. You buy it because you love it. The current market trends shouldn`t dictate weather you should buy or not also. It depends on how much money you have at the given time. And don`t worry what everybody else is thinking or saying about you either.

 

I don't know guys, I've seen several really nice buys in the Ads section here on the HAMB. If I had some room to park any more I'd probably pick up 1 or 2. What the hell, prices should be coming down even more. Should be a good buyers market coming up soon.

 

Hope no one noticed the collections coming up for sale this year....lot like last year and the year before....

 

Two things that pull at the old car market on one side there a less every year on the other the hot market is the cars that guys 50 to 70 wanted or had in there youth and that keep moving up. A model A in todays dollars have lost value

 

Looking back I always paid too much and sold too cheap...
To me this China Virus just made things move a little faster. Old guys have nice cars, paid too much having the built they way the wanted and for the most part the younger generations don’t give a s**t about grandpas old car.
Guys who wanted 32 roadsters have them and from what I see there widows can’t sell them... yes they move on but not near someone’s idea on what they were once worth... is my 401 down, of course it is, will I out live it, probably.. Would I blow 100K on a car, hell no.
I bet we will see more of these “show” cars driven which was what was intended..... I hope so anyway.

 

Yup....I just listed my profile pic For sale. For this reason. I can't eat my car.

 

My buddy paid over 40K for a Silverado last year, Pays over 700 month in payment plus insurance and property tax. I figure my 50 chevy will have about 10 k in it or less. Will it have a rear view camera or bluetooth, no but I will be able to drive it and probably sell it to at least break even, Hell I have been offered more than I have in it already. (Don't tell my better half).

 

Show cars always sell for high prices especially with history cause they are not buying the car they are buying the "Fame" to get a little. All the rest of the cars sell for approx. half the build price. Best deal is build what you really dig and drive it til you drop. That's the way to avoid buying a 60K new truck.

 

I like the newer vehicles but not the price tags. $45-60k for a 2WD truck, best alternative is to keep multiple vehicles going, older ones are easier to keep running, at some point at least one will be running when you need to go to the store....

 

Hey, cj;
Not particularly fond of corvettes, but do like the psycho paints... .
Please post pics if you can.

& jnaki;
Actually, I really like that color. Might be tempted to coat it w/Roth-style 'flake. Maybe.

Marcus...

 

I'll just bide my time and wait for a good deal on a car. Of course once I do get one, all sorts of fire sales will come out of the woodwork...

 

There are a number of things that effect car prices such as the economy, supply, and even the Corona Virus right now.

Just look at the cars for sale on the HAMB some of them have been for sale for more then a year of in some cases 3 to 5 years and yet the owners keep listing them ever few weeks hoping someone new might see their ads.
I also see car priced reasonably to move them and they seem to sell.

Another important thing to remember is some people need the money right now and others seem happy to just sit and wait until a buyer comes along.

For a seller that does not need the money it becomes a waiting game but another strange thing starts to happen and that sometimes is they start looking at their car and saying I wish I never built it or purchased it in the first place.

Someone told me years ago you make your money when you build or purchase your car meaning that if you built it for the right price and may be able to ream the the rewards when you sell it.

I know guy's who paid way to much when they purchased their cars and are now in shock that the cars is worth less the half what they paid for it!

This also applies to real estate or anything else you pay to much for. You may never get back what you think it worth unless you can find someone who thinks like you think.

With people unemployed and sheltering in place it makes selling anything much harder until times changes!

Jimbo

 

Just read the US real estate market is worst is been in years. Who in this COVID-19 time frame is out looking at someones house? Who even wants to show their for sale home to someone that may be carrying the COVID-19 virus? With over 30 million Americans presently out of work you know the state of auto sales. Bad or worse.
Investing in Real Estate may be the way to go.

 

Couple thoughts

Anything I actually build, I keep, and plan to wear it completely out. (I dont have much garage time and building them to resell doesnt work for me anymore)

Prices are high because expectations of cars have been raised. Consider up until about mid 90's, single stage was a go to for restorations. The paint and bodywork costs have gone up exponentially due to materials. I feel more work is farmed out across the hobby as a whole then it used to be (not on this board).

Quality - Desireable cars will always have buyers and will hold pretty steady. Trendy cars, Fringe cars, unusual/ off make, 4 door will take a beating during a downturn. All those 20" wheel muscl*cars that sold 100k and above......good luck. Street Rod builds flavor of the month, latest gizmo... those will get hurt. Those cars often go stagnant and get revamped.

Theres a couple vehicle types Im watching, doubt theyll get "cheap enough" for me, but Ill buy if they do.

 

I do agree real estate is the way to go.

Gotta watch what the indicator is in real estate. If youre looking at new home sales, common economic indicator -of course theyre way down. It takes a sustained period of time for home sale prices to drop (think 2008-9), to a point where the sales prices take a large % cut.

There may be a few deals out there where people are forced to sell, but I would suspect most that are trying to sell will just hold off. If they are in that dire of circumstance I would assume they stay in the house and negotiate with foreclosure process. We're not that far in that foreclosure would be kicked off yet anyway.
Relocation for jobs drives a lot of home sales, not much of that going on to force sales.

 

You're right about all these factors -- but you also have to add the fact that the market on pre-1960's cars was already getting soft starting about 18 months ago. (The older guys aging out of the market, the younger guys wanting 1960's-70's cars and foreign cars.) When taken all together, I think this is going to be a perfect storm of supply/demand, economy and pandemic = a pretty significant drop in prices. Might not have sunk in to everyone yet -- but I would think by mid Summer you are going to start seeing prices come down -- or at least, much lower offers being accepted.

I'm not a builder, but a collector. You can see the kind of stuff I have in my Albums section. Last year I decided to thin the herd. I have sold 4 of my best traditional hot rods since last Summer, and I must say, I was unpleasantly surprised at the sale prices. The more expensive cars were much harder to sell. Took me 9 months to sell my Henry 32 roadster and felt lucky to get $50k for it. (And that was a damn nice car with zero needs -- and I was being aggressive trying to sell it. Even internationally.) Now with the shut down people are out of work and many small businesses will fold. The landscape has definitely changed. The price drop hasn't arrived yet but it will. I can only imagine how hard it's gonna be to sell stuff by next Fall or Winter.

 

I too am kinda in the market for the same car although a little more specific 56/57 61/62. Keep in mind most of the guys that have them are retired and the current job market does not affect them. With that being said if retirement funds start to be affected that could change too. Then again maybe not. It just all depends.


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Interesting-my neighbor who owns a Hot Rod parts place stopped by to drop off some parts for me.
He said it was slow in Jan/Feb but now it is the best it has been in a long time. He sells to many shops in the area and said they are all slammed with work as well. Surprised me-said they can't take in any more work or builds for a while. These are shops that charge up to $100 an hour. Guess someone is still in the game.

 

It's a veritable who's who of my old client list, coming out of the woodwork right now.

I am working by regular job, remotely, and my old job, at the same time, literally.

 

The pandemic has kept a lot of us home, thus able to work on our vehicles. Even my better half cannot drag me around to this and that so I have much more time in the garage, thus buying more parts/supplies etc. Have gone thru 2 tanks of gas on my welder since this started. It does not surprise me that many rod shops are busy, this has made many aware of their mortality and thus eager to get the dream car done. The long term outlook for our vehicles is probably limited but I suspect the deficit spending will cause enough inflation to mask some of it. I am building my truck for me, on a tight budget, so resale value is not really a consideration. Try and stay safe all.

 

With now more then 33 Million Americans now out of work some of them must have a hobby they are no longer funding. If I didn't have a job, I'd be more concerned about paying my mortgage and putting food on the table before I'd lay out money on a toy or a toy related activity. Just makes sense. Some of these 33 million have to be in the old car hobby. When I went from full time employment to retirement the difference of cash coming in caused me to rethink the money I spent on car parts, going to events and blowing $500 dollars or more on a three day car event. Just thankful I don't have a half finished project to complete.

 

dont do like most...buy cheap fix up and loose your ass.
instead buy quality at a fair price, maintain then sell for a little profit.
There is always a buyer for quality goods.

 

I'll call this entry into the near quarterly discussion of the car market "The Freefall Guide To Collector Cars"

Ok mods, this isn't political but some political description of eras may season it so do as you must, or we can go for a ride. Carter years? Freefall. Some stuff you couldn't give away. Tech stock bubble? Freefall. That flame was also fanned by nearly every magazine declaring people restoring cars were throwing good money away. Take advantage of their folly and buy those fresh restorations for 50 cents on the dollar. Default swap debacle? Freefall. Prior to you couldn't pay enough for most cars, even 6 figure modified builds were a runaway train and many were financed by folks who just knew their home and property values would escalate to levels beyond the most evil type of avarice. BZZZZTT!!! Time to pull the plug and flush those mistakes down the auction drain with $300K "restomods" selling at $40-60K. And now a dozen years later we're all gonna die next month so, yeah I know. Freefall. Only this freefall hasn't totally begun just yet because the boredom and such has those who've saved looking. It's not a real spike in the "market" either but a notable blip on the radar. I figure this Freefall to really hit somewhere in the middle of Memorial Day and Independence Day. Leftovers and excess amounts of peripherals like neon and pertroliana ("The Antiquated" to us) will pile up by Labor Day. These are my observances and opinions which have been formed over a focus of this life covering 40+ years. I'm not certified in sales or appraisals by any national orgs and nor has my life been 100% focused pricing. Still, you can't live it without actually knowing what's going on out there.

So where are we right now? Has the beloved Deuce Coupe dipped below $20K? Can I get a 36 3W for $5Gs? Is a Model A coupe body with minimal rust only worth $700? No, no and no. Granted, an even casual interest in old shit that usually fills out available raw material is drying up because even fewer want the ones nobody wanted in their day save for Ralphy's Dad (Christmas Story) looking for an economic family car. Anyone who thinks a postwar Plymouth 4dr sedan with holes in the floor and loose connecting rods is a 5 figure car probably watches too much TV and in fact believes that shit. Let's hit the buzzer again. BZZZTT!! It never was. "What do we have for our runners up Johnny?" I hope we know it won't be a millionaire waiting to buy it from you for a world record price so the only consolation prize at those levels remains as the fun you had with it. Yet elsewhere in available schtuff there's still things the average enthusiast can only dream of. Who's gonna sell the Ardun stuff for a couple grand tomorrow? Seems there's no shortage of new 97s and the faith in the life we share was high enough that we're graced with new ones, at a price. Why are some shops so busy they can't take new work? Anyone care to hazzard the nat'l average shop rate? Who's paying it, Santa Clause? It's 2020 not 1975. There's a generation filled with young folks who literally hate us. Not all but more than we're used to seeing. There's 330,000,000 people in the US. Wages, home values, vintage flathead Ford parts and 32 thru 40 Ford models are at pretty high levels in many cases. Even 4dr sedans in the right year sell for numbers we would have laughed at in our youth. If "nobody wants a..." then why are brand new bodies being built? Dueces, 40 Ford coupe, Model A roadsters, Ford Broncos, and a plethora of O/T musclecar bodies too. I promise you those aren't being manufactured by some hobbyist in his home garage and are also priced accordingly, and selling.

Like the Freefalls mentioned above this one will also pass. After the bailout shit a dozen years ago someone lit the wick on a Roman candle and things took off, and without being anally specific I'd say late '09 thru all of '10 is when that happened. They never last and the burned out shell has to, wait for it, Freefall back to Earth. But what never happens is the sky falling with it even though a cacophony of Chicken Littles might say so. At the end of the day none of it matters unless you're buying or selling. I'm selling. I'm waiting but still selling. What I'm selling hasn't devalued any. Folks have been busy investing, working, moving forward, playing the stock markets. Why dump $60K on a pleasure car when that same $$$$$ can earn double digits for a while? After or during every societal pothole collector cars, art, gold, antiques, you know, tangible assets, will go for a ride. Those with some capital will buy at the right time during the Freefall (shit, that again?) and be ready to sell when the chorus chimes in with "Happy Days Are Here Again." And they will be here again, they always are. In those days we'll once again shift the convo to how the no good greedy son of a muthaless goat types are taking advantage of the little guy by wanting top dollar. Yes, there are constants in our life too. Hope I didn't bore y'all. Happy "Mutha's" Day...